Physicians can expect to see twice as many patients with dementia by 2060

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The number of Americans developing dementia is projected to double by 2060—a figure twice as high as previously believed—with significantly higher risk for women, Black adults and those older than 75 years old, according to a new study published in Nature Medicine. Researchers attribute the dramatic rise to the aging of the U.S. population and heightened awareness of the condition.

The study, a collaboration funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to Langone Health, including authors from Johns Hopkins University and other U.S. institutions, estimates that 42% of Americans aged 55 and older face a lifetime risk of developing dementia. That number is more than double previous estimates due to improved documentation and tracking of the disease. The findings translate to an estimated half-million new dementia cases this year, potentially rising to one million annually by 2060.

Dementia, characterized by progressive declines in memory, concentration and judgement, is linked to genetic predispositions and lifestyle factors, including high rates of hypertension and diabetes, obesity, unhealthy diets, lack of exercise and poor mental health. The aging U.S. population, with 58 million individuals now over age 65, is a major contributor to the projected surge in cases.

“Our study results forecast a dramatic rise in the burden from dementia in the United States over the coming decades, with one in two Americans expected to experience cognitive difficulties over age 55,” said Josef Coresh, MD, PhD, senior investigator of the study, epidemiologist and founding director of the Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone. Coresh noted that women face a higher lifetime risk (48%) than men (35%), largely due to longer life expectancy.

Disparities in dementia diagnoses

The findings also revealed a significantly higher risk among Black adults and individuals carrying a variant of the APOE4 gene, which is responsible for transporting cholesterol and other lipids in the bloodstream, with lifetime risks ranging from 45% to 60% for these groups.

The anticipated rise in cases of dementia presents significant challenges for policymakers. “The pending population boom in dementia cases poses significant challenges for health policymakers, in particular, who must refocus their efforts on strategies to minimize the severity of dementia cases, as well as plans to provide more health care services for those with dementia,” Coresh explained.

Previous research suggests that interventions intended to prevent heart disease, such as blood pressure control and diabetes prevention, could also slow cognitive decline. Additionally, hearing loss among older adults has been linked to dementia, yet only one-third of Americans with hearing loss use hearing aids. Coresh recommends increased monitoring and government assistance programs to make hearing aids more accessible.

The study underscores the need for public health initiatives that address the growing dementia epidemic, and Coresh argues that more resources are needed to address racial disparities in health care. As dementia numbers among white individuals are expected to double over the next four decades, rates among Black individuals are expected to triple. Coresh specifically calls for health policies to improve childhood education and nutrition in Black communities, which past research has shown as an effective measure against cognitive decline later in life.