New Cancer Cases to Increase 75% by 2030

By 2030 the number of people with cancer worldwide could increase by more than 75%, according to new research in The Lancet. New cases in developing countries are expected to lead the worldwide increase.

In “Global cancer transitions according to the Human Development Index (2008—2030): a population-based study,” the authors looked at types of cancer in 184 countries of differing standards of living, as determined by the Human Development Index (HDI).

In 2008 there were 12.7 million new cases of cancer. The authors are expecting that number to increase to 22.2 million by 2030. The brunt of the cancer burden will be carried by the richest countries. Although they only account for 15% of the world’s population, they will have almost 40% of the global incidence of cancer.

In countries with high HDI breast, lung, colorectum and prostate cancers were the most common, and incidences of those cancers have been increasing. Those four along with oesophagus, stomach and liver cancers account for 62% of cancer in medium to very high HDI regions.

Typically infectious cancers, such as cervical or stomach, are most common in low HDI regions. In these countries cervical cancer was more common than both breast and liver cancers.

“Our findings suggest that rapid societal and economic transition in many countries means that any reductions in infection-related cancers are offset by an increasing number of new cases that are more associated with reproductive, dietary, and hormonal factors,” the authors wrote. “Targeted interventions can lead to a decrease in the projected increases in cancer burden through effective primary prevention strategies, alongside the implementation of vaccination, early detection, and effective treatment programmes.”

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